A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
